The supply pressure of refined lead eased, and lead prices fluctuated at highs before the holiday. [SMM Lead Morning Meeting Summary]

Futures Market:

Overnight, LME lead opened at $1,945.5/mt, dipped to $1,932/mt during the Asian session, then fluctuated upward during the European session, consolidating above $1,950/mt, and finally closed at $1,958/mt, up $8/mt, a gain of 0.41%.

Overnight, the most-traded SHFE lead 2506 contract opened at 16,995 yuan/mt, touched a high of 17,080 yuan/mt at the beginning of the session, then fluctuated downward to a low of 16,985 yuan/mt. Subsequently, bulls increased their positions, leading to a rebound above the 17,000 yuan/mt level, and finally closed at 17,050 yuan/mt, up 130 yuan/mt, a gain of 0.77%.

On the macro front, most analyses continue to reiterate the view that "the US Fed will not pivot this year," or simply hope for "an imminent interest rate cut." However, the potential risks that may be overlooked are: if inflation remains stubborn and a new round of geopolitical or trade frictions emerges, the US Fed still retains room for more stringent regulation. Domestically, the central bank will conduct a 600 billion yuan 1-year MLF operation on April 25.

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Spot Market Fundamentals: In the Shanghai market, Chihong lead was quoted at premiums of 0-50 yuan/mt against the SHFE 2505 contract, while Jijin lead was quoted at premiums of 0-20 yuan/mt against the SHFE 2505 contract. In the Jiangsu-Zhejiang region, JCC lead was quoted at premiums of 0-20 yuan/mt against the SHFE 2505 contract. SHFE lead pulled back after an initial surge, but prices remained higher than during yesterday's trading session. As month-end approaches, suppliers actively quoted and sold goods, with some offering discounts. The premiums and discounts were generally lower than yesterday, especially for ex-factory primary lead, which saw further widening discounts against the SHFE 2505 contract at 150-50 yuan/mt. In the secondary lead sector, smelters increased production cuts, reducing the supply of secondary refined lead. Mainstream quotations were at discounts of 50-0 yuan/mt against the SMM 1# lead average price. Downstream enterprises maintained a purchasing-as-needed approach, with some large-discount cargoes being traded, leading to regional improvements in spot market transactions. Inventory-wise, LME inventory increased by 800 mt to 277,875 mt, with the increase mainly from the Kaohsiung warehouse.

According to SMM, as of April 24, the total social inventory of lead ingots in five regions stood at 46,200 mt, down 16,700 mt from April 17 and 8,500 mt from April 21.

Today's Lead Price Forecast: As month-end and the Labour Day holiday approach, suppliers are actively selling goods and gradually lowering premiums and discounts. Meanwhile, raw material prices such as scrap batteries remain firm, and losses for secondary lead enterprises have widened. The number of secondary lead smelters cutting production has increased in Anhui, Jiangsu, and Jiangxi, easing supply pressure in the secondary refined lead market. The tug-of-war between bullish raw material supply and bearish consumption continues, with lead prices fluctuating at highs. Further attention is needed on downstream pre-holiday inventory preparations and changes in consumption orders.

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